Adam Tauman Kalai (Open AI), Ofir Nachum (Open AI), Santosh S. Vempala (Georgia Tech), and Edwin Zhang (Open AI) wrote a paper titled Why Language Models Hallucinate (4 September 2025).
Continue reading “Why language models hallucinate”Dynamic Uncertainty
Doug Garnett and JP Castlin wrote a blog post titled Complexity: The Dynamic Uncertainty of Emergence (1 August 2025).
Continue reading “Dynamic Uncertainty”Rory Sutherland on ROI and Opportunity Cost
Camille Moore asked Rory Sutherland, Vice Chairman of Ogilvy, “What do you see as the biggest problem that’s facing branding right now?”
Continue reading “Rory Sutherland on ROI and Opportunity Cost”the difference between a Mess, a Problem, and a Puzzle
Sean Brady interviewed Gerald Ashley on the Simplifying Complexity podcast (27 May 2024). The main topic was the difference between a Mess, a Problem, and a Puzzle.
Continue reading “the difference between a Mess, a Problem, and a Puzzle”Risk: Global averages do not apply to local failures if they can be catastrophic.
JP Castlin wrote a LinkedIn post titled The risk(s) of not understanding risk (May 13, 2024).
Continue reading “Risk: Global averages do not apply to local failures if they can be catastrophic.”Knightian uncertainty
I recently posted a review of the book Why Can’t You Just Give Me The Number? An Executive’s Guide to Using Probabilistic Thinking to Manage Risk and Make Better Decisions by Patrick Leach. In response, Rick Nason commented about the “Knightian distinction of risk & probability.”
Continue reading “Knightian uncertainty”Why leaders should adopt an emergent rather than a reductionist approach to digital transformation
Mike Walsh wrote an article for Harvard Business Review titled How to Navigate the Ambiguity of a Digital Transformation (November 29, 2021).
Continue reading “Why leaders should adopt an emergent rather than a reductionist approach to digital transformation”Chris Mowles on Uncertainty
Chris Mowles wrote a Medium post titled The experience of uncertainty (3 Mar 2023).
Continue reading “Chris Mowles on Uncertainty”Doug Garnett on Complexity, Bias, and Reasoning
Doug Garnett wrote a blog post titled Complexity: Bias and Reasoning (25 February 2023).
Continue reading “Doug Garnett on Complexity, Bias, and Reasoning”Andrew Willshire on forecasts and models
JP Castlin posted an interview with marketing and media analyst Andrew Willshire titled Models & Mistakes (10 February 2023). Topics include forecasts, models, and econometrics.
Continue reading “Andrew Willshire on forecasts and models”
Articles of Interest 