Allison Schrager wrote an article the Wall Street Journal titled Risk, Uncertainty and Coronavirus.
« In 1921, shortly after the 1918 flu pandemic, economist Frank Knight made the distinction between risk and uncertainty. The future is unknowable, but risk is measurable. It can be estimated using data, provided similar situations have happened before. Uncertainty, on the other hand, deals with outcomes we can’t predict or never saw coming. »
« Risk can be managed. Uncertainty makes it impossible to weigh costs and benefits… »
« The goal should be to move from uncertainty to risk, which will take time and data. The way forward is testing as many people as possible—not only people with symptoms. Some carriers are asymptomatic. California is starting to test asymptomatic young people to learn more about transmission and infection rates. Testing everyone may not be feasible, but regularly testing a random sample of the population would be informative. »
[ Corona virus, COVID-19 ]
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