Doug Garnett and JP Castlin wrote a blog post titled Complexity: The Dynamic Uncertainty of Emergence (1 August 2025).
« In the May 23rd edition of JP Castlin’s Strategy in Praxis newsletter we suggested businesses often face a type of uncertainty JP named “dynamic uncertainty” — a unique uncertainty revealed when we understand the inherent complexity of doing business. Dynamic uncertainty, though, is missing from the canon of uncertainty classifications. In that article we noted:
“ …dynamic uncertainty keeps changing. Experiments lessen uncertainty in the moment (about the potential of the signal, feature, product, service, etc.), but add uncertainty over time as other agents (employees, customers, competitors, suppliers, etc.) adapt. Each ebb and flow relates back to the same underlying action as path dependencies emerge. Consequently, businesses do not merely react to dynamic uncertainty, but actively participate in its perpetuation. It is the force that they shape and the force that shapes them, akin to dynamic equilibria or an emergent pattern the stability of which shifts over time.” »
« dynamic uncertainty is naturally present within all business efforts because all business success is emergent. That is, every company is immersed — always — within dynamic uncertainties because it is also immersed — always — within complexity and emergent results. »
« Traditional business training expects that businesses work in known, logical, and separable steps. Every business, though, is complex. And during those times when complex interactions dominate business behavior we cannot know how a business will work except by observing what emerges as parts interact. »
« Emergence, then, is inherently connected to uncertainty. This is also seen in an excellent description of emergence at work based on Simon Levin’s discussion in Fragile Dominions (our summary):
- At the micro-level, parts interact and adapt with each other and with their environment which also adapts.
- From those interactions, patterns emerge at the macro-level.
- Studying the parts cannot predict the patterns which will emerge.
- The emergent patterns are often similar to those in other complex adaptive systems.
- Despite similar patterns emerging in different businesses, the details leading to those patterns will always vary.
- We cannot reverse engineer the detailed actions of the parts from knowledge of the patterns which emerged. »
« A quite useful phrase we both like is suggested by Chris Mowles as “stable instability.” In his writing, Mowles suggests “..the stable instability of every day organizational life arises from the self-organizing activities of what everyone is doing together to get the work done. [Complexity, Key Ideas in Business and Management, Chris Mowles, Routledge, 2021, page 21] »
Articles of Interest 