Andy Kessler wrote a Wall Street Journal opinion piece titled The Future Isn’t What It Used to Be: There’s one trend you can count on: Most predictions turn out to be wrong.
He cites a 1989 book called Megamistakes by Baruch College professor Steven Schnaars. “The book’s message was simple: Don’t be fooled by prevailing opinion, and don’t extend trend lines into the future.”
“My experience is that people tend to overestimate the absurd, like Elon Musk’s dreams of building a hyperloop and colonizing Mars, and underestimate the mundane, like improvements in messaging and shopping. I’m usually bullish until dreams become hallucinations. Technology develops in S curves: Things start slow, go into hyperbolic growth, and then roll over. That’s why ‘the singularity’—self-improving, unrestrained artificial intelligence—probably won’t happen. Don’t extend the trend.”
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