Doug Garnett wrote a blog post titled Complex Forces Make Prediction Unreliable (18 May 2026).
« “Even in reasoning upon some subjects, it is a mistake to aim at an unattainable precision. It is better to be vaguely right than exactly wrong.” — Carveth Read »
« Because businesses are complex adaptive systems, their futures are not — and cannot be — predictable in any precise and accurate way… While we may anticipate what might happen, we cannot predict it. »
« Further, the business operates and interacts among many other complex adaptive systems such as markets, customer groups, and the economy. … Complex adaptive systems continually evolve and change as interactions change, some parts fall away, some parts change dramatically, and new ones continually come into play. While businesses want to believe systems can be clearly defined and self-contained, the true complex adaptive systems of business always involve, as they must, a great deal of ambiguity. »
« Most Predictions Involve Numbers — But Numbers are a Reduction. Attempts to predict future business results almost always express these predictions with numbers — from costs to units sold, cash flow, and profit… Yet, numbers are reductions — abstractions which isolate specific factors away from connections in the real world. »
« Every Prediction Leads a Company to Adapt… Every prediction is, on its own, an intangible interacting part within the complex adaptive system which is a business. As soon as a prediction is shared the company adapts in response to that prediction — adaptations which often change the circumstance which were assumed in making the prediction. »
« “Anticipate” Amid the Inherent Lack of Certainty… Instead of predicting we should begin attempting to anticipate what might happen… Where predictions claim to be solid, firm, and precise, anticipation allows us to work amid uncertainty to succeed within a future which cannot be predicted. »
« Consider the change from predicting to anticipating. Asked to predict future sales, a sales team will begin building precise spreadsheets calculating precise numbers and spend great effort and considerable time doing this. Yet these numbers are always precisely wrong. A far better result is obtained through discussion with sales managers about what they anticipate might happen. Allowed to envision rough scenarios, the team is more articulate, accurate, informative, and reliable — revealing key insights about the business future which cannot be found in attempts to precisely predict. »
« An important part of “anticipating” is allowing multiple possible answers with no one expected to be “best.” By comparison, prediction narrows a business’ focus more than is reasonable amid complexity. If a company is asked for predictions, they need to determine whether those are critical. »
« Predictions are so brittle that any change in circumstances causes their usefulness to drop precipitously. Yet anticipating a variety of results leaves doors open to be prepared for what emerges. »
« Complexity science studies unusual behaviors which result among large numbers of parts (what are called complex adaptive systems) as they interact and adapt — results which are only known once they emerge. Further, such emergent results are non-linear results or gestalts — results which are more than and different from a sum of the parts which interacted leading to the results… Critically, the future path within any complex adaptive systems (e.g. companies) is always uncertain »
Doug Garnett is the author of the forthcoming book The Complexity Paradigm.
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