Dr. Augustine Fou wrote a blog post titled Humans Don’t Hyperscale. Sorry, Silicon Valley.
« Silicon Valley investors have enjoyed unbridled moneymaking and merrymaking for the last two decades, thanks to one giant misunderstanding, or should I say “myth?” This is the myth of “hyperscaling” where hockey-stick growth is the goal, at ALL costs. In the digital world, which is free from the constraints of the physical world, it is entirely possible and in fact easy to do. Millions, now billions, of fake accounts, fake users, fake traffic, fake ad impressions, etc. can be manufactured out of thin air to create the appearance of hyper growth. This is necessary to justify the sky-high, irrational valuations of private and public companies, for the benefit of the pocketbooks of investors. »
« But, humans don’t hyper scale. First of all, there are only a finite number of humans on earth – approximately 7.7 billion, last time anyone checked. And the total number of humans, overall, doesn’t grow more than fractions of a percent year-over-year. Further, the usage patterns of computing devices and online services have all plateaued in recent years because practically everyone that can access and afford computers, laptops, mobile devices, etc and online services already have access and use these regularly. »
« More cracks in the myth are showing up now when Silicon Valley tries to cross over into the physical world. Of course you can make the numbers look great on paper – for example, hockey stick growth in bike sharing services. But there are only so many humans in the world and only so many who would need to use a bike share (i.e. they may already have their own bikes). »
« I’ve been studying the ad fraud space for years; but now there are more and more cases seen in the physical world that further prove that the hyperscaling that drives valuations on paper are not supported by reality. »